In an unprecedented move, India has officially suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations for over six decades. The decision, taken during a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, follows a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, which claimed at least 26 lives. The treaty will remain in abeyance until Pakistan ends its support for cross-border terrorism, marking a historic turning point in South Asian geopolitics.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Symbol of Resilience

Signed in 1960, the IWT is an international water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank. It governs the use of the Indus River system, with India receiving rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan controlling the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

Remarkably, the treaty has endured through:

• Three major wars,
• Countless border skirmishes,
• And major terror incidents — including the Uri attack (2016), which left 18 Indian soldiers dead.

Despite recurring tensions, this is the first time India has suspended the treaty, demonstrating a significant strategic shift.

Why India Moved to Suspend the IWT

India’s decision to put the treaty on hold stems from:

• Ongoing cross-border terrorism allegedly backed by Pakistan.
• Frustrations over Pakistan’s objections to Indian hydroelectric projects.
• The need to align water use with environmental goals and climate challenges.
• Recognition that shifting demographics and energy needs require fresh terms.

India had already taken key steps:

• January 2023: Issued a notice to Pakistan seeking treaty modification.
• September 2023: A second notice urged a “review and renegotiation,” signaling intent to revise or possibly revoke the pact.

Hydroelectric Projects at the Core of the Dispute

India, under the IWT, is permitted to construct run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers. However, Pakistan has frequently objected, claiming Indian designs violate the treaty. Despite these objections, most projects have been found compliant by neutral expert assessments.

Among the key Indian projects in contention are:

• Kishanganga Hydro Electric Project (on the Jhelum’s tributary),
• Ratle Hydro Electric Project (on the Chenab River),
• Pakal Dul and Sawalkot Projects, which remain in various stages of development.

Though these projects do not block river flow, Pakistan contends they violate treaty design parameters. India maintains the projects are compliant and essential for clean energy and water storage needs.

Legal Constraints and the Treaty’s Loopholes

The IWT:

• Contains no exit clause or defined end date.
• Is perpetual and can only be modified by mutual consent.

The treaty outlines a three-tier dispute resolution system:

1. Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)
2. Neutral expert (appointed by the World Bank)
3. Court of Arbitration

However, if India operates outside the treaty, the legal process collapses. Experts highlight:

• Pakistan cannot approach the International Court of Justice, as India has placed legal reservations.
• There’s no peaceful enforcement mechanism available to Pakistan post-suspension.

Strategic and Political Calculations

The Indian government is reportedly weighing multiple options:

• Fast-tracking all permissible hydroelectric projects.
• Optimizing water usage within treaty limits for agriculture and industry.
• Halting data sharing on river flows, which could impact Pakistan’s flood management and planning.
• Suspending inspection visits by Pakistani officials to Indian project sites.
• Denying diplomatic and technical engagement unless terrorism is credibly addressed.

Furthermore, placing the treaty in abeyance enables India to:

• Redefine its regional water diplomacy from a position of strength.
• Push for green energy goals via increased hydropower use.
• Lay the groundwork for future negotiations under revised geopolitical realities.

Despite the expanded authority, India’s lack of diversion infrastructure means short-term impacts are limited.

Pakistan Faces Devastating Consequences

Pakistan is critically dependent on the Indus Basin:

• 80% of its irrigated land (over 16 million hectares) relies on the river system.
• 93% of water from the Indus Basin supports irrigation.
• Over 237 million people reside in the basin, of which Pakistan holds 61%.

Major urban centers — Lahore, Karachi, Multan — and hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla depend on uninterrupted water flows.

The economic toll could be catastrophic:

• The Indus contributes 25% of Pakistan’s GDP.
• Supports crops such as wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton.
• Already among the most water-stressed nations, Pakistan’s per capita water availability is falling dangerously.

Conclusion: The End of Water Diplomacy?

The Indus Waters Treaty, once hailed as a symbol of resilience and cooperation, is now in suspension — a move that redefines South Asia’s diplomatic and water security landscape.

By asserting its upper riparian rights, India has raised the stakes in its longstanding conflict with Pakistan. This suspension not only reshapes regional dynamics but also opens uncharted legal and strategic waters, where cooperation may give way to confrontation unless diplomatic dialogue is urgently revived.